A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
